Again, Nigeria’s curious population figures

7 years ago

Again, Nigeria’s curious population figures

The incredible population figure that Nigeria’s colonial masters fed the world with more than five decades ago came into sharp focus again recently when the Director-General of the National Population Commission (NPC), Ghali Bello, announced that Nigeria’s population now is 182 million.

Bello who disclosed the figure in Abuja, said the latest estimate was based on the population of 140 million recorded in the last census a decade ago, using a yearly growth rate of 3.5 per cent and weighed against other variables such as rising life expectancy and declining infant mortality rate.

It is unfortunate that most Nigerians from different parts of the complex federation still find it difficult to believe the figures despite a cloud of witnesses we have had in mobile telecommunications technologies and other identity management agencies that should corroborate the NPC’s claims.

Nigeria’s population figures have always been suspicious and disbelieved for political reasons because they form the basis for sharing resources in the federation every month.

The NPC should have been more organised in releasing such sensitive data. In this age of the big data, the NPC operatives should have used some analytics and other software that helps in explaining data to even the uninformed. The reasons are not too far to seek: It may be a national security issue to parade incredible population figures obtained from wrong premise and misleading statistics. This is to avoid creating tension in the volatile polity. Population is, in any case, a sensitive issue in this country.

The claim by the NPC’s boss that Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, had been witnessing a growing youth bulge, with those under 14 years accounting for more than 40 per cent of its citizens should also have been driven home with some data that can be verified by independent sources. That is now to create trust, the building block of credibility in this age when agencies and audit firms are known to be lying with statistics to get by. This is why it is difficult to match the claim about youth bulge growth with a rider that “this growth is happening at a time the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) is shrinking amid biting recession.”

Lest we forget, the 140 million recorded in the last census remains contentious. Lagos State, for example, strongly disputed the figures assigned to it by the NPC, which indicated that it was below Kano State. This occurred after the state (Lagos) obtained a higher figure of about 18 million from a simultaneous census it carried out along with the NPC. Besides, the Lagos independent survey result was close to the United Nations estimate for the State.

Even, the 3.5 per cent growth rate the NPC used is suspicious. Nigeria’s population growth in 2013 according to the World Bank was 2.8 per cent. And the 2016 estimate according to Index Mundi is 2.44 per cent. The use of contraceptives and other developments have reduced the growth rate. The NPC must have relied on outdated growth rate data.

Prior to 2006, no census conducted in Nigeria had been acceptable. Recently, the former Statistician General of the Federation, Dr. Yemi Kale, said that estimates, which put Nigeria’s population between 170 or 180 million, were accurate. The technocrat who helped in rebasing the Nigerian economy in 2013/14 fiscal year in a credible manner, had noted that census figures might have been inflated in some quarters in the past, giving the impression that more population of humans reside in certain areas.

Also, a former Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), Dr. Festus Odimegwu, had raised doubts about the country’s population. He, in fact, stirred the hornet’s nest when he declared that Nigeria had not had any credible census since 1816.