Why Peter Obi Won't Win In 2023

1 month ago

I would start by commending the supporters and fans of the "Obidient" movement. They have really changed the narrative by proving naysayers wrong that Obi supporters do not only reside on twitter but are actual and real individuals.

Peter Obi and by extension, Labour Party have seen unprecedented organic support growth. The likes of which have never been experienced in the Nigerian political ecosystem. I also get this feeling that PDP are regretting not having Obi within their grasps.

I was impressed by the massive turnouts for the rally held at various locations within Nigeria. It shows that the people are fed up with the status quo.

However, how many of these Peter supporters actually have PVCs or have registered? Showing strong support both online and offline do not translate to election victory. Some of these supporters are actually saying Obi should be immediately sworn in! I find this quite laughable, to say the least.

In recent research, I carried out (mostly from interviews and questionnaires to "Obidients"wink, I discovered that 90% percent of these fans would likely not vote for Peter Obi on election day. Why? due to the following:

1. No PVC

It's a no-brainer, PVC is the tool by which you walk your talk shout.

During the recent voter registration exercise, I had to take a week's leave from my workplace in order to register. My local Government was not involved with the exercise, so I had to wake up as early as 4 am every day in order to beat the queue at another location. I work in an organization of 50 employees located on the Lagos mainland. About 10 of them are indifferent towards presidential elections (they don't give a Bleep). Out of the 25 who show support for Peter Obi:

5 have PVCs but their polling units are somewhere in the east. They didn't apply for transfer so I wonder how they would vote on election day if they are still in Lagos.

5 have PVCs registered in Lagos locations but they already have concrete plans to "japa" between now and January 2023.

Out of the remaining 15, only 1 has a PVC and would vote here on election day.

The remaining 14 never registered because they were either too busy with work or too lazy to get up early and queue for registration.

On the other hand, the 15 employees who show support for Tinubu (my MD inclusive) have their PVCs ready and would vote for him on election day.

Also shocking to note: During my time in the queue to register, I noticed that those who were faithful to the cause were Tinubu supporters. These were made up of mostly market women and some not-so-decent men (commonly referred to as touts/agberos) . In fact, I saw an elderly woman who was in the queue, not for herself but for her son. He couldn't join early so she held a spot for him until he arrived.

2. Election day sharp practices

These include thuggery by opposition parties. Thugs could create insecurity and scare off obidients from voting.

Vote buying. We all know Lapour Party doesn't give "shishi".

Underage voting. The North has past records of this.

With these few points of mine, I want obidients not to be surprised if the 2023 presidency do not tilt towards their direction.

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