10TH NASS: Looming showdown in Abuja over zoning

Forum 1 year ago

10TH NASS: Looming showdown in Abuja over zoning

The battle for the leadership of the 10th National Assembly is on the front burner after the emergence of president-elect Bola Tinubu (representing the South-West) and vice president-elect Shettima (representing the North-East).

What this means is that the NASS principal offices in the next dispensation will be shared among the remaining four geo-political zones namely: South-East, South-South, North-Central and North-West.

There have been talks of zoning of the principal offices by the All Progressives Congress (APC) which has the majority of seats in both chambers of the National Assembly. Nevertheless, there are lawmakers elect from various parts of the four zones jostling for the principal offices especially the Senate President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Those in the race for Senate President are Orji Uzor Kalu, Jibrin Barau, Sani Musa, Godswill Akpabio, Dave Umahi, Osita Izunaso, Ahmad Lawan, Abdulaziz Yari and Ali Ndume.

For the Speaker, the front runners are Idris Wase, Yusuf Gagdi, Aliyu Betara, Sani Jaji, Tajudeen Abbas, Sada Soli, Benjamin Kalu, Abdulrahman Olawuyi, Miriam Onuoha.

It promises to be a big battle in June when the principal officers of NASS will be elected after the 10th NASS inauguration. Nobody is sure whether whatever zoning arrangement the APC leadership comes up with will be acceptable to the contenders. Meanwhile, parties who will constitute the minority in the incoming NASS – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), African Development Party (ADP) and Young Peoples Party (YPP) – are coming together and saying, with their total number almost at par with the APC’s, the election of the leadership of the two chambers of the legislature cannot be done without their inputs. But in this interview, Hon. Abdulmumuni Jubrin, who is returning to the House of Representatives for the fourth time to represent Kiru/Bebeji Federal Constituency of Kano State and who championed the speakership of Hon. Yakubu Dogara and Femi Gbajabiamila at different times, gives insights into the speakership of the coming 10th National Assembly. Here is the package.

On victory on NNPP platform after leaving APC…

Well, there was always that affinity and, of course, a long-term relationship with the National Leader of NNPP who actually had hunted me into politics. That’s on one hand. Then on the other hand, we weren’t wanted in APC, the governor of Kano State (Ganduje) doesn’t want a lot of us in APC and so, he practically ensured that he pushed us away and, of course, we went back and we got ourselves together and we taught him the political lesson of his life.

So, you basically fought Governor Ganduje…

Absolutely! Because, he was fighting us and he made sure that we got nothing and we couldn’t breathe in the APC and, at the end of the day, he cost the APC 18 House of Representatives members including about six or seven super members that the country has invested a lot in training them, 4th time members, all of them lost, cost the APC 34 State Assembly members. And I can tell you that, largely, some of those lawmakers are quality lawmakers. They lost not because of themselves; they lost because it was a vote against Ganduje.

So, it’s somewhat a popularity contest between a former governor leading the NNPP and the sitting governor?

Oh, straight ahead, it was a popularity contest between (former governor) Kwankwaso and (sitting governor) Ganduje and, of course, everybody understands the ideology of Kwankwaso, where he’s coming from, his integrity, love for the people, love for the masses and everybody trusts him. You know trust is very important in politics. Once people trust you, they can do anything for you. So, it was the situation in Kano of Kwankwaso versus Ganduje and the people of Kano have spoken.

But Ganduje has had his way in the past. He’s won elections, he’s shown that…

He has never won the election on his own. The election he’s won was under Kwankwaso and the last one he never won I’ve said severally on this programme that, in 2019, when I was in APC, officially, APC won the election but, in reality, PDP under Kwankwaso won the election.

That is what you want to believe.

No, that is not what I want to believe, that is what happened. That was the clear case of what happened.

But the reality is actually what the authorities said, isn’t it?

Well, I said officially, so, nobody is going to take me to court. Isn’t that official, so what they announced officially, I said, officially, Ganduje won. I don’t want to even say APC, Ganduje won but, in reality, Kwankwaso won that election in 2019. PDP won Kano State in 2019.

Let’s talk about the business of the National Assembly. You’re going back to the National Assembly, a very familiar terrain, one place where you rose to become the Chairman of the Committee on Appropriations. That is one of the most influential positions in the National Assembly. But being a member of the NNPP, do you think that you’re going to get such acclaim this time?

Oh! Well, I have never been propelled by what I will get and I’m very sure that even my colleagues will attest to it, and one of my weaknesses, and I have tried all my life to learn how to look for something for myself but I have not been able to know how to do that, perhaps God has blessed me with the skills to know how to help others to get something. So, my priority hasn’t been what I am going to get even though I know that I have served the National Assembly so well that, with every sense of humility, I know whoever emerges as Speaker will require me to function in a particular position to continue to add value to what is happening.

But coming into the House as a very younger lawmaker, of course, I was Chairman of Finance then, and I simultaneously became Chairman of Appropriations. It’s quite a difficult thing to do, not more than two, three or four have had that history in the National Assembly. But, this time around, we will watch and see what happens. But to be honest with you, I’ve never been propelled by what I am going to get and that is why you see that even in the previous election where I led the campaign of Femi Gbajabiamila, you will understand very clearly that I did not pick any committee.

You worked for Femi Gbajabiamila. In fact, you were the DG of his campaign for his speakership ambition. This time around, who are you working for?

That is a very unfair question. I warned you before coming to this programme that you shouldn’t surprise me. Now, you have sprung up a surprise. Of course, you know that I’m a blunt person. I don’t shy away from answering questions. I would rather try to give you a bit of a rundown of the candidates that I believe or the aspirants that I believe of them will become the Speaker, God willing, and try to look at their strengths and, perhaps, if you ask me, if as are today we go to the polls, who among the candidates is going to win the election? Those are the kind of questions that I can answer.

Of course, you know, the present Deputy Speaker is running. The present Chairman, of Appropriations, is running. The present Chairman, Transport, Tajudeen Abbas, is also running. Sadi Soli as you’ve mentioned, then, of course, Yusuf Gadji. Of course, I understand the guys from the South-East, Miriam whom I know pretty well and the Chairman House Committee on Information. Perhaps, they are putting in themselves as standby in the case in the Senate, a northerner emerges as Senate President.

Is that possible, is that likely?

I don’t think so. It’s my personal opinion. Let me tell you this. If you look at the entire controversy, the Muslim-Muslim (presidential) ticket and everything, I think anybody that loves this country should not be thinking that the number three man should be a northerner or a Muslim. The correct thing to do is that, that position should go to a Southern Christian and I believe that anybody who wants it the other way around loves himself more than the country. You should love the country more than yourself.

From your own point of view, how do you feel? You are talking about the spread, the balance of power, how do you feel, what do you think is just and fair?

For me, 1999 is not 2003, but, again, you can also see that something experimented with in 1999 and it worked and, assuming I am in APC, I would recommend to APC that you should adopt the 1999 template.

What was the 1999 template?

One, I want to analyze to you because you’ve asked me what is my preference for the speakership and I want to give an answer to that. Then secondly, coming back to this, I am saying 1999 is the best but, again, you will have a situation where some contestants will not respect (APC) zoning and if they do not respect the zoning, I should expect that the APC as a party should understand that even though you are implementing a 1999 formula, you also have to understand that there are circumstances that are unique. I tell you, the big candidates, six of them, I was just doing an analysis of the six of them.

You have two of them from the North-West, and you have two of them from the North-Central. From North-West, you have Jaji, you have Sada Soli. From North-Central, you have Wase, you have Yusuf Gandi. From North-East you have Betera. All of them have a basis and justification for being Speakers which I agree with.

The North-West will tell you they produced a chunk of the votes, so what do you use to compensate them? So, the speakership is a very good position to say you are compensating the North-West. The North-Central also claimed they’ve given the largest number of states and, of course, they did that in 2019, they’re doing that again now and they’re saying “Look it’s only fair you give us”. Then, of course, the guy from the North-East, Betara about whom people will say “Oh no, the vice president-elect is from the North-East but it’s a moral issue because, in 2019, it is what all of us and APC as a party stood for even when the vice president was from South-West. So, APC as a party adopted Femi. So, you cannot kick out Betara from the race on that basis.

Then for the North-Central the minus in that race is that the National Chairman is also from the North-Central but, again, you cannot take away Wase from it. Then, when you go to the North-West, it is the same thing. But now, I will tell you, four of them will respect party zoning because I know all of them and I have interacted with all of them. Tajudeen Abbas will do that, will respect zoning or whatever APC says. Jaji will (also) do that. Yusuf Gagdi will do that. Sada Soli will do that. Two candidates will not respect zoning even if they are zoned out and that is Wase and Betara.

Why do you say they will not?

They will run (for speakership) because I’ve had a conversation with them.

They will go to the floor and test it.

They will go to the floor and test it and, now, I tell you something: The party should not be upset with them. It is not largely because of what they want, it is because of the history of the support base they’ve always had and it is so massive and, if you ask me point blank, today, no matter what the party does on zoning and you ask me who is going to become Speaker, I’ll tell you that Betara is going to have 90% of the votes cast.

…of the 360 members?

Yes of the 360 members, he is going to have 90% of the votes cast, it will be difficult (to stop him) except something extraordinarily happens before the day of the election. Now, I am not telling you that that is where I am tilted to. I’m giving you a fair analysis and a picture of what is going on at the moment.

Now, look at it now in terms of the way this country is present and one thing that a lot of people have said is that the unity of this country is very critical and is being tested. The fabric of our unity has been threatened and has been stretched.

We need to have a balance of power that will satisfy different parts of the country. In that sense, what do you think will work for our nation as it stands right now beginning from the Senate presidency?

I have told you that if you adopt the 1999 template, it means that the Senate presidency will go to the South-East. I know a lot of people are going to shout “The South-East is fighting APC” and the rest. Look, for goodness sake, once the President emerges, it is fundamentally right for him to assume the status of the President of the country, that’s the whole idea. And of course, there will be genuine arguments “oh, we gave votes and the rest, what do you compensate us with?” There are so many things that you can use to compensate people and make them feel they’ve been carried along.

Could this be compensation for the South-East?

Well, I don’t know whether they will accept it or not but in certain instances, there are certain things you do that you will say “I have satisfied my conscience, I have tried to carry the entire country along”. Many people will differ with me but I’m telling you that this is my opinion.

Deputy Senate President?

If you are using the 1999 template, you’re talking about North-Central.

So, what about Speaker?

The speakership, if you are going by the 1999 template, you will go North-West and you may be surprised, maybe the person that I’m even supporting, may not be from North-West.

Who are you supporting?

I’ve said something to you that this is where I think it should be zoned but I have also told you that two candidates have already gone far away beyond zoning. They’ve gone far. They’ve gone too far.

Who are those?

I have said it to you that Wase and, of course, Betara and it is not only because I understand the history of where they came from, the volume of support that they have from members and the rest. I’ve also had conversations with them.

Who are you working for?

On a serious note, I have a National Leader, Kwankwaso, whom we all love and defer to and we will continue to engage, at the end of the day, he’ll be able to advise us on what actually we should do. But this is going to be the dynamics, for me, I believe that what is safe for the APC is to zone it to the North-West and even if some candidates go against it and they defeated zoning, APC would have satisfied its conscience that “look, North-West, we gave you this” and there’s not going to be a grievance against the party.

So, you say North-West for Speaker, Deputy Speaker South-South. But there is something that I’m hearing and you are in the position to tell me whether or not it is true. 166 are the minority members-elect now in the House of Reps, 160 APC. I’m hearing that the minority parties are threatening that they will produce the Speaker against the run of play.

That will be a dramatic twist in this whole game. So, there are more minority members than the ruling party or they call them the majority party on the floor which is the APC 160. I understand that you and your colleagues met and resolved that the minority wants to take over the House. Is that right?

It’s not right.

So, what is the truth?

It’s not right, I think there was a slight misrepresentation of what transpired at the meeting. Of course, we’re organizing ourselves, of course, we also recognize the fact that we are in the majority and, hopefully, after the supplementary elections, we’ve done our analyses. Look, at all the various constituencies and the rest and we still believe that we will still have an edge. The worst-case scenario will be at par or maybe one or two members in between.

But the most important thing is that in history, four times I have been sworn in as a member; in the history of the National Assembly, this is the only time that you have the minority parties coming in with such a large contingent and most likely are going to even have more members than the ruling party.

And because of that, the leadership of the minority parties, a lot of other members, it is not the only Jubril, there are about six members who are even my seniors now in the House, all of us came together and we said we realize this, it has never happened in the history of this country, and it makes the situation a bit complicated because the ruling party could see that when you go to a party as an individual, they have the edge. But, again, when we put our strength together, we are more than them.

We are stronger than them. It means that there are a lot of things that we can do with our strength including electing a Speaker. But, again, we are so experienced that we understand the importance of a rancour-free process, both in the build-up to the election of the Speaker and managing the House. So, you don’t only look at the election, you don’t only look at those things that excite you, you also put the bigger picture on the bar.

But I need to answer this question properly. What we now look at because of the tradition is that the ruling party, when they win the election, traditionally, what goes to the opposition party is majorly the Public Accounts Committee Chairman and maybe one or two irrelevant stuff that can be tolerated. But in this case, where we have what we have coined as the greater majority in social science because of our influence and numbers, we are no longer the minority, we don’t refer to ourselves as the minority when we come together. As individuals we’re the minority, when we come together now we refer to ourselves as the greater majority. Since we are the greater majority, we want to tell the APC that we must look at how we can share power in the House.

This is just one step towards that direction of sitting to negotiate but anything can happen if they decide to play in an arrogant way, but I also understand that there are a lot of experienced people in their midst that also understand this reality. And so, what we’ve done is to put ourselves together.

It’s been a very difficult process bringing all of us together especially managing our colleagues in the PDP. I know they’ll be upset with me but I’m saying this so that their own leaders will also understand the bigger problem of the PDP in the country, and we’re going to hold ourselves together as one.

You call yourselves the greater majority. Are you planning to produce the Speaker from your ranks?

There’s no plan like that going on.

So, it’s clear you have deferred to the APC to produce the Speaker?

Yes but people do not understand when we say in an event where the APC refuses to sit with us, to negotiate power with us, even when we say we are going to produce the Speaker, we are not saying we are going to produce the Speaker from the minority, we are saying we are going to pick from the APC who we want and make him Speaker. I think that’s where people are getting it wrong.

So, we may have a replay of the Tambuwal or the Dogara episode. That’s what you are thinking?

It’s a possibility but the ball is in the court of the APC and I’m sure they will not mismanage the process.

And the first thing is the issue of zoning.

Absolutely.

How is the minority thinking about what is fair? Is that one of the things you considered at your meeting?

Well, it is not our responsibility and I do not think that in any of our meetings until the elections we will sit to see how APC should do their zoning. What I have just told you about zoning is my own personal opinion; it does not represent the opinion…

So, what’s the major consideration of the minority caucus?

Acceptability, capacity, the person that we believe can do the job, the person that majority of members believe they can rally around; he can stabilize the House, he can protect the interest of the minority and ensure and also protect the interest of the majority, he can relate very well with other arms of government, the executive and the judiciary.

Have you streamlined?

No, we haven’t. As the greater majority, we have not decided who to support but I do not believe that, having had all these experiences, the APC will mismanage the process and refuse to put its house in order. Even if, in an event that they refuse to do that, if we say we are picking the Speaker, it is still going to be from their midst because, if you pick anybody from our midst, it is still coming from a minority party.

We’re only a greater majority when we come together. So, it is also going to be somebody from their midst. Now the difference between now and 2015, the party in 2015 didn’t like the individuals. The President also was clear that “look, this is the person that we want”. Now, in this instance, I also I know what’s going on in the system.

I know that the party and, of course, the president-elect has no problem with Wase, has no problem with Betara, has no problem with Yusuf, has no problem with Sada Soli. But, again, if they zone, they will prefer that you respect zoning but if zoning doesn’t work and some of the candidates decide to go and contest and they win, I do not think there will be a confrontation.

The standing rule of the House does not preclude a minority being Speaker. Is that an outright and specific rule saying only majority party can be Speaker?

Yes, it’s explicit, a person, an aspirant will be nominated from the party with the majority of members.

Because I’m imagining you’ve been involved in working for the emergence of two Speakers and I also thought that you might also put your hat in the ring.

I didn’t even think about that, it is now that I said maybe that is why Ganduje made sure that I got out of APC. It is just now that I am even realizing that probably I would have thrown my hat into the ring but it doesn’t matter.

The most important thing is to serve but should there be an election today on the floor of the House, let’s assume we’re in June, the House is inaugurated now, should there be an election, who do you think will win?

I actually answered that question previously. If you run the numbers, Betara has an overwhelming majority. If you go to the floor today, he’s going to win, in fact, he’s going to win by 95%; yes, but anything can happen along the line to the date of the election. But I am telling you as a fourth-term member of the House and somebody who has been in the centre of two successive speakership races, I can easily interpret what is going on and tell you that if you go to the floor, that gentleman is going to win.

And, unfortunately, even if you zone, the problem with such zoning is that if you argue that he comes from the zone with the vice president, I’m sure that APC as a party will not advance that argument because they’ve laid the precedence in 2019; so it’s a complicated situation.