I warned INEC would foul up and create anarchy

Forum 1 year ago

I warned INEC would foul up and create anarchy

Let me first of all confess to making a prediction that did not come to pass. That is about the outcome of the presidential election. But, when forecasts are made, a certain scenario is always in mind. Given all the promises made by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, I had hoped that Nigeria would have a free, fair and credible series of elections in February and March 2023. To some extent, the fault was entirely mine. The spirit had told me and I published what I was told in December last year. Before reading what I wrote two months ago, let me apologise for shying away from the apocalyptic prediction that came to me late last year as I observed INEC taking the steps that would lead to the current bedlam. My heart could not take it. I didn’t want to be accused of fomenting trouble through prophecy. Like Jonah, I ran away from the truth. Forgive me. But, here, again, is what I wrote and published earlier this year

FELLOW NIGERIANS; GET READY FOR REAL CHAOS

“Wisdom in people consists in the anticipation of consequences” – Norman Cousins, 1915-1990.

In the last Sunday of December, I got published an article on this page titled: “What if there is no credible election in 2023?” Here is the last paragraph of that article as a quick reminder.

“Just as relevant is the issue of security of materials and men. Who will drive into the nation’s most dangerous points without military escorts? And who will be there to receive the materials without armed men to protect them?

To be candid, I strongly believe INEC is not being honest with us. The 2023 election might not hold; at least, not as we all want it.”

A regular reader of the column called me and said: “Dele, I wish you are wrong this time; because virtually everything you predict comes true.” I replied: “My friend, I wish the same; because the thought of the consequences of a botched election this year is driving me almost crazy.” What makes the matter more frightening to me is the almost nonchalant attitude that Professor Yakubu, Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, is taking to this very real possibility of election postponement, cancelled election or inconclusive election. Our dear Professor, like several we have experienced in our history, might be intelligent, but is obviously not wise. He does not realise that the minute postponement, or cancellation or inconclusive election is announced, the mobs take over. INEC will lose control. Now read this and ask yourself if we are not closer to the brink of chaos.

INEC SPEAKING GOVERNMENTALESE

INSECURITY: Polls may be postponed, cancelled – INEC – News Report, January 10, 2023

INEC has just served up a political time-bomb which, if not diffused, will blow all of us up – irrespective of who or which party we support. And the electoral body has done it by resorting to “Governmentalese” which is a language universally adopted by public officials when they intend to deceive the people. For instance, when a Minister announces that his government will soon embark on a project; most people don’t know the meaning. It invariably means they have not even thought of it; let alone planned to do it. How many completion dates have been given for the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway; with all the sincerity a Minister can muster? Why is it still Work-In-Progress? INEC’s announcement reported above is the worst sort of “governmentalese” I have ever read in my adult life. Taken in conjunction with the request for transport in late December, INEC has placed before us what it considers the best alibi for a predictably botched election in February. The report quoted INEC saying the following:

“Moreover, if insecurity is not monitored and dealt with decisively, it could ultimately culminate in the cancellation and/or postponement of elections in sufficient constituencies to hinder declaration of elections results and precipitate constitutional crisis. “

In December, my fears were based on the fact that INEC reportedly needed 100,000 vehicles, and as many drivers and assistants, so late in the day. How on earth does an organisation gather so many people, conduct security checks on them; train them and deploy them in such a short time?

Read that statement again and it is obvious that INEC has increased our fears by pointing to insecurity as a possible cause of postponement or cancellation of the elections. Furthermore, INEC, more than Fellow Nigerians, should be aware of the security situation right now; and nothing known to us provides comfort.

Last year, the Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, assured Nigerians that banditry and kidnapping and other elements of insecurity would end by December 2022. We are less than three weeks into the New Year, and the nation has experienced abduction of several people at a train station. The hoodlums in several states are just warming up for operations this year judging from reports from Kaduna and Niger states.

For decades, Youth Corps (NYSC) members have formed the bulk of election officials in every state. This year, from information reaching me, there is stiff resistance from the kids – with total support from their parents. At least two fathers have told me categorically that on no account will they allow their daughters to be posted to polling stations in the states where they now serve. Katsina State will certainly experience one of the worst rejection rates this year. If security cannot be guaranteed in the President’s own state, how can INEC expect it elsewhere? And, if that is an indispensable condition for conducting a free and fair election in February, INEC might as well stop now and we can begin to consider how to avert the constitutional crisis which is almost certain to occur.”

Before that, another article in mid-February 2023, has asked: ‘What if there is no credible election this year?’ Taken together, our readers can see that I was certain that INEC would screw up the elections. Why? The reason is simple. After over 30 years writing columns, I have developed that instinct which tells me when an official private or public is about to foul up – even as they are offering assurances to the people concerned. Professor Yakubu reminded me of Professor Soludo and his disastrous banking consolidation. Braggadocio, which blinds such officials, eventually leads to catastrophe. The man says aggrieved parties can go to court. Which court? The court that gave victory to the candidate who received the fourth largest votes by adding imaginary votes for him; so much so he received more votes than registered voters? Or, is it the court which proclaimed someone a candidate who did not take part in the primaries? Sure, they are waiting to deliver another mind-boggling verdict which will astonish the world. Have you ever heard lawyers or justices anywhere in the world citing Nigerian justices since Justice Udo Udoma? Still, the contestants must go; at least for the record.

Unless I have forgotten one of the fundamentals of democracy, but, I recollect that it says “the minority shall have their say; the majority shall have their way.” Well, 63 per cent of Nigerians voted against the All Progressives Congress, APC, candidate; and only 37 per cent voted for him. Is it justice for 37 per cent to trump 63 per cent? Would it not be fairer to all stakeholders to have a run-off between the top two which will definitely ensure somebody got over 50 per cent – even if it is 50.01 per cent?

This article is being written a day after INEC presented the Certificates of Return to President-elect Tinubu and Vice-President –elect Shettima. This should ordinarily be a happy day for Nigeria; a day we prove to the whole world that the giant of Africa can perform the simple task of electing our leader as well as any other nation. Professor Mahmood Yakubu and INEC have disgraced us.

RANTINGS OF OBASANJO

“The evil that men do lives after them…” – William Shakespeare, 1564-1616

In 1978 when Obasanjo was Military Head of State, he took two measures; one of which has brought us to our present predicament. One, he had a new Constitution written for the country. Two, he unilaterally forced the framers of the Constitution to adopt the presidential system instead of the parliamentary system. The latter is more expensive and favours the rich. That is bad enough. The real flaw in the presidential system is what we are experiencing now in Nigeria; when 63 per cent voted against the ruling party and it is declared the winner. We can only thank Obasanjo for that atrocity.

LAST LINE: Will Bode George now go on exile since Tinubu has won?