2023: Presidential Race Election Analysis & Prediction

1 year ago

2023: Presidential Race Election Analysis & Prediction

The General elections of 2023 is fast approaching and with what could be argued as the most hotly contested presidential race ever. We have four main aspirants from 4 different Geo-political zones- who are vying for the votes of the nation.

Fmr. Governor Tinubu (APC)-South West
Fmr.VP Atiku Abubakar (PDP)-North East
Fmr. Gov Kwankwaso (NNPP)- North West
Fmr. Gov Peter Obi (LP)- South East

I thought it would be a worthwhile assignment to try and pre-emp the balloting outcomes by zones based on voting patterns of the most recent 2019 presidential ballot. The only aspirant to have competed in the 2019 elections was Atiku Abubakar, who went up against and lost to the current incumbent Buhari. On the table below is a breakdown of the votes in 2019 by state and by geo-political zones.

North East: A total of 4,510,220 votes were registered with Buhari winning 72% of the votes against Atiku's 28%. It was a particularly dismal showing for Atiku as this was his "Home Region", he hails from Adamawa state a state he barely secured victory in with 50.5% of the votes.

North West: By far the largest voting Bloc in the nation a total of 7,439,087 were registered in 2019 in which Buhari again confidently won with 74% of the votes in comparison to Atiku's 26%.

North Central: A zone I dub the "King Maker" region, its diverse ethnic groups and religious fluidity makes the regions very unpredictable to call and who ever carries this region usually emerges victorious. With a total of 4,100,106 registered Buhari again won this region with 56% of the Votes to Atiku's 43%.

South East: Coming in at just 2,117,100 registered votes Atiku performed incredibly well in this zone with 80% of the ballots going his way to Buhari's abysmal 19%.

South West: Another hotly contested region of the election Buhari carried 52% of the 3,937,559 votes with Atiku carrying 45%. Even though this Zone was touted as an APC bastion the votes suggested otherwise.

South South: A zone who's voting patterns closely mirrors that of the SE, 3,305,754 votes were cast here with Atiku securing a very impressive 68% of the vote against Buhari’s 32%.

Conclusions that can be drawn from the 2019 Election as it relates to its 2023 sequel are as follows; Atiku for a man that has competed in numerous elections through out the last 3 decades and has held the 2nd highest office in the land remains a peripheral player. He barely won his Home State and was resoundingly crushed by another Northerner and Muslim in his home North East Zone. Even if he wins his state and zone this time round will he be able to stave of Rabiu Kwankwaso from eating a significant chunk of those votes?

In the Northwest were Kwankwaso is from and extremely popular by all accounts. I do not expect any of the other to have a significant share of the votes. The North central is almost impossible to predict. Atiku scored 43% of the vote last time round but I expect Obi and Tinubu to have a large say in this Zone as well.

It’s safe to say that the huge and overwhelming Atiku victories in the South East and South South will all but disappear with Peter Obi in the field. I would be shocked if Obi does not register a 90% tally in these zones. The South West I believe will go to Tinubu but not to the extent he is banking on the PDP party apparatus is strong here and with the amount of non-indigenous ethnic immigrants in this zone I expect Kwankwaso and Obi to have a share in the voting pie as well.
So last last we can try and make predictions, therefore I have assigned percentages of votes to all contestants for each zone (See 2nd table).