Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Consolidation Continues, Giant Price Move Imminent

2 weeks ago

BTC is down by a minor 1.5% today as it struggles to maintain support area amid $33K. It is trading within a narrow range between $36,000 and $32,000 during the first half of July, and all signs point to an upcoming huge move.

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The volume for July has remained painfully low, especially during the last two weekends, which saw the two lowest volume days. This, combined with the drawn-out consolidation period, has many traders waiting for a huge move ahead, which would dictate the next trend and is possible in both directions. However, more signs are bearish than bullish.

This move also has a fundamental cause – the GBTC shares unlock. With the $550 million GBTC shares unlock coming this Sunday, it seems that traders are highly cautious, as evidenced by the low volume. Therefore, it appears that a huge move might not occur until this uncertainty has been resolved.

The bigger picture is the $30K – $42K range, where BTC was trading at since the May-19 price collapse. However, that range had tightened over the past weeks, and Bitcoin is mostly trading around the $32-33K mark.

Looking at the following charts, there is a short-term descending price channel which had emerged on the daily chart, spanning the period of July. Additionally, a short-term falling wedge (which might turn into a bullish pattern) can be seen on the following 4-hour charts.

BTC Price Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

Key Support Levels: $32,700, $32,000, $31,500, $31,185, $30,600.

Key Resistance Levels: $33,500, $34,000, $35,500, $36,600, $38,000..

Looking ahead, the first support lies at $32,700, which had provided horizontal support in the first two days of July. This is followed by $32,000, $31,500 (lower angle of the wedge & late June double-bottom daily chart support), $31,185 (downside 1.618 Fib Extension), $30,500, and $30,000.

On the other side, the first resistance lies at $33,500 (early July support turned resistance). This is followed by $34,000 (20-day MA and upper angle of short-term wedge), $35,500 (50-day MA), $36,600 (late-June resistance), $38,000, and $39,500.

The daily RSI remains beneath the midline as it tracks a long-term descending trend line that has prevented the momentum from establishing a higher high since the start of February. For BTC to recover, the RSI must break above this long-term descending trend line, and end this bearish lower highs trajectory.

Bitstamp BTC/USD Daily Chart

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Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart

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